We come to the third and final part of my 2016 season preview for the San Diego Padres.
In part one, we looked at the reasons for optimism, including lack of overhyped expectations, Tyson Ross at the top of the rotation, an upgrade at shortstop, and improved outfield defense.
In part two, we saw how the Padres have a number of things holding them back, including:
- the loss of Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy to free agency;
- a weakened bullpen;
- uncertainty in the outfield and the back end of the starting rotation;
- lack of production at shortstop (even while Alexei Ramirez is an upgrade, which tells you just how bad it was in 2015).
Today, we will examine that one word that will make or break the Padres season, after which I will predict how many games they will win in 2016.
So, what’s the magic word for this season?
What is an intangible? It’s something that is not entirely clear; we don’t know how it is going to shake out.
For instance, the Anaheim Angels have Mike Trout in center field, so they know what they’re going to get: a .300 batting average, 30-plus home runs, and solid defense. That’s a pretty nice intangible!
Meanwhile, the Padres will likely have Melvin Upton, Jr. and Travis Jankowski, which means…what, exactly?
That is an intangible: you just don’t know what you’re going to get.
And so, here are the intangibles that the 2016 Padres must confront if they are going to be competitive.
- Can Wil Myers stay healthy? It cannot be stated any more loudly or more often: if the Padres are going to have any chance in 2016, Wil Myers needs to stay free of the injury bug.
As recently as 2012, Myers was a highly touted prospect for the Kansas City Royals who smashed 37 home runs in the minor leagues. Considered by some in that organization to be the next George Brett, his team shocked the baseball world when they traded him to Tampa for James Shields (ironically enough, since they both now play for the Padres).
But after a promising rookie season in 2013 when he won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, Myers has been hobbled by a nagging wrist injury the last two years. The fact that it recurred last year is troubling.
So far, Myers looks healthy this spring. But only time will tell. If he can remain off of the disabled list, he could really help the Padres to be competitive, and hit 25 or more home runs, effectively replacing the offense that was lost with Justin Upton’s departure. But if not, expect 95 or more losses this year.
2. What kind of manager is Andy Green? When general manager A.J. Preller was looking for a new field manager, most people (including me) thought he would go with the safe choice of Ron Gardenhire. After all, Gardenhire had managed for 11 years in Minnesota where he won six division titles, and he learned two things that would have made him very suitable to the Padres: how to win in a small market, and how to work with young ballplayers.
But since when has anyone ever known Preller to play it safe?
Instead, he went with Andy Green, most recently the third base coach of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Prior to that, he managed for a few years in their minor league system.
Bottom line: Any time you hire a rookie manager, you’re taking a risk. Sure, you could get the next Earl Weaver, but more than likely, you’re getting the next Eddie Haas.
(Who is that? He was the rookie manager of the Atlanta Braves in 1985. You probably never heard of him before, but that’s my point.)
But so far, Green has gotten high marks—this offseason, he actually travelled to meet with many of his key players, one-on-one, and get to know them. Green also gave a rousing speech at the start of spring training that got his players pumped up.
Of course, none of that will matter if the Padres don’t win under him. We likely won’t know the verdict of Preller’s decision to hire Green for at least one year, but more likely two.
3. Will either Renfroe or Blash hit consistently enough? Losing Justin Upton to free agency was huge. His departure is a major reason why the Padres will probably win less than 74 games, their total from last year
But there is some hope on the horizon. While the light-hitting Jon Jay is the presumptive favorite to be the primary left fielder, there are two young right-handed power hitters who just might be able to fill the void: Jabari Blash and Hunter Renfroe.
Blash is very intriguing. Last year, he smashed 32 home runs at AA and AAA, while striking out 132 times. He is potentially lightning in a bottle.
On the downside, he is 26, and he still hasn’t made his major league debut. When any team has someone like Blash in their system and doesn’t call him up to the big club, there is a reason. Always.
Next is Hunter Renfroe. Still only 24, he is one of the Padres top prospects. Since he spend most of 2015 at AA with just over 90 at-bats in AAA El Paso, he will probably start there. But he figures to be ready for San Diego at least by August.
However, he is notorious for struggling early. Such was the case at AA San Antonio, before he finally caught fire. So when he arrives, don’t expect much early on.
4. Can Cory Spangenberg exceed his expectations? When Cory Spangenberg finally got the chance to play every day, he did fairly well: from June on last year, he hit .295 with a .354 OBP, showing that he is a potential leadoff hitter.
5. Was Melvin Upton’s 2015 season a mirage? The April 2015 trade of Craig Kimbrel from Atlanta to San Diego reminded me of trades kids made during recess when I was in elementary school: Team A would only give Team B their best player if they also took the best player’s little sister.
Only for the Padres, they didn’t have to take Kimbrel’s little sister (does he even have one?); instead, the price of acquiring Kimbrel was taking on Melvin Upton, Jr’s ridiculous contract (five years, $70 million).
But after a slow start, Upton actually had a respectable season: .259 with a .757 OPS and five home runs in 205 at-bats, including .321 is September-October. His defense in center field was also a noticeable upgrade over Myers’.
If Upton can produce at that level again, he could be more than just a placeholder until Margot is ready in 2017. If not, it could be a long season.
6. Will Andrew Cashner bounce back? One of the biggest disappointments of 2016 was clearly Cashner.
In 2013-14, Cashner looked like an ace-in-waiting. His ERA during those two years was 2.87, and his WHIP a strong 1.13. All he needed to do was get over his injuries, and all would be fine.
But that’s not what happened. In 2015, Cashner stayed healthy but regressed badly, going 6-16 with a 4.34 ERA and a horrendous 1.44 WHIP.
Since this is Cashner’s walk year, expect him to bounce back. But if he does well, the Padres could swap him in July for younger talent.
7. Will their bullpen hold up? I said earlier that the Padres were right to trade away Kimbrel and Benoit, as they were luxuries they could not afford at this time.
While I stand by that remark (and while I applaud Preller on a nice return), 2016 is going to be a tough year for the bullpen with those two anchors gone.
Take a look at their projected bullpen for 2016:
Fernando Rodney: while he has 236 career saves, he is 39 and his a lifetime WHIP of 1.36. That’s mediocre if you’re a starting pitcher, and downright nasty if your job is to pitch one inning per game.
Jon Edwards: He hasn’t played that much in the big leagues; just 31 games and 25 innings. He’s also 28, so this will be his first full big league season.
Brandon Maurer: Thank goodness Green has realized that Maurer belongs in the bullpen. He pitched well there last year, and is a potential closer.
Carlos Villanueva: One of the least noticed, but also among the best moves Preller made this offseason. At 32, he’s been around the block, and has pitched in 425 big league games. Last year, he had a nice triple slash of 2.95/1.16/.223 with St. Louis. If he can repeat those numbers in San Diego, Villanueva will have been a very worthwhile purchase.
Leonel Campos: This spring, the 28-year-old has struck out six and walked one in six innings. Granted, that’s a small sample size, but if he can repeat that, he could help the Padres.
Kevin Quackenbush: The closer-in-waiting prior to Kimbrel’s arrival last April, “Quack” took a step backwards last year, posting a 4.01 ERA in 57 games. Yet, he still had 58 strikeouts and a 1.23 WHIP in 57 games.
Nick Vincent: Though he has had a tough spring, Vincent figures to play a prominent role in the bullpen this year.
Bottom Line: While there is some good potential, most of these pitchers (and other candidates not mentioned) are either mediocre or unproven. Expect many changes and demotions until Green can find the right bullpen formula.
2016 Projection: And so, here it is: the 2016 Padres will finish at 70-92. It gives me no joy in saying that, and it could actually be worse than that—especially if Cashner gets traded, Rodney pitches like he usually does, and Myers again misses a boatload of playing time again.
The best they can hope for is .500, but that is assuming that all of the above intangibles work in their favor.
The big news for San Diego this year will be what they won’t see on the field:
- international signings;
- the amateur draft in June, where they have six of the top 84 picks;
- the development of Margot and Guerra (and possibly seeing Margot this September);
- the July 31 trade deadline—if Cashner bounces back and is traded, Preller should be able to get a nice haul for him. Kemp could also go if (a) he produces, and (b)
It bears repeating: like the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs of 2010-2014, things are going to get worse before they get better.
But there is hope: look at those two teams now.
If Preller plays his cards right, and if Green turns out to be a capable field manager, then the Padres will be very competitive around 2019.
Could Derek Norris Be Headed To Texas?
The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Rangers are currently investigating Norris, as well as Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
But they are more interested in Norris, who is set to make $2.9 million. Lucroy is owed over $5 million in 2016, and his normally steady offensive numbers took a dive last year.
Who would the Padres obtain from Texas in such a scenario?
One possibility is Jurickson Profar, who plays shortstop. Alexei Ramirez is currently slated to start there. But while he is an upgrade over the horrendous Alexi Amarista experiment, Ramirez is 34, and his defense has seen some decline in recent years.
More on this as it becomes available.
Last time, I discussed the reasons for optimism for the Padres as they head into the 2016 season. To recap, they are:
- no overhyped expectations
- four of their 2014-15 offseason acquisitions who contributed (Kemp, Norris, Shields, and Myers) are back
- an upgrade at shortstop in Alexei Ramirez
- the outfield defense will be much improved
- Tyson Ross, a potential star, will be anchoring the starting rotation
Today, we come to the other side: reasons for concern. And for the 2016 Padres, there are plenty.
But before we get there, we must address the white elephant in the room: why are there so many concerns?
Answer: the Padres are rebuilding, even if they’re not actually calling it that. During the offseason, they traded away their most potent chip in Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox for four prospects, including center fielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra—both of whom should be in the majors by 2018 (though Margot could be up by the end of this year). And through the exodus of players like Ian Kennedy and Justin Upton, they accumulated six of the first 84 picks in the upcoming amateur draft in June.
General manager A.J. Preller also avoided surrendering any draft picks by signing Alexei Ramirez over Ian Desmond to play shortstop; the latter would have cost them a pick, while the former will not.
Preller has also been noted for his savvy at spotting international talent, and so the Padres figure to go deep later this year in the international draft. So the good news is, they will be a very exciting team to watch starting around 2018-19 when all of this young talent arrives in the big leagues.
But first, they have to play through 2016. And as they do, they must deal with the following concerns.
1. How do you replace the production of Justin Upton?
Even though 2015 was something of a down season for Upton (.251 BA, 159 strikeouts), he was still a solid run producer for the Padres (26 home runs, 81 RBI, .454 Slugging, .790 OPS). In this current pitcher’s era, those aren’t numbers you can just replace without spending mega-millions.
And so, with the light-hitting Jon Jay likely being the primary left fielder, and with no major free agent signing, it looks like Upton’s absence is going to leave a gaping hole in the lineup.
2. Can Wil Myers play a full season?
The Kemp trade might have been the most attention-grabbing trade of the last offseason, but the Myers trade was easily the most important. In Myers, Preller acquired a still-very young and talented bat who came at great cost; most notably their first-round draft pick of 2014 Trea Turner, and top pitching prospect Joe Ross (younger brother of Tyson).
But after a decent start, Myers re-injured his wrist (which also affected his 2014 sophomore season in Tampa), and played in just 60 games.
This year will be his fourth big league season, so it is remarkable that he is still just 25. The Padres are praying that he will turn it around so that he can help to make up for the loss of Upton. A full season of Myers should produce a .270-.280 average, 20-25 home runs, an .800 OPS, and maybe even more that that.
But a third season of missing large chunks of games will be painful. At worst, this trade could be the sequel of Nolan Ryan-for-Jim Fregosi (i.e., one of the worst trades in baseball history).
3. How solid is the infield?
Three-fourths of the starting infield will be different from opening day 2016. Yangervis Solarte played a reliable if unspectacular third base (.748 OPS, 33 doubles, 14 home runs); basically, he is the second-coming of Maicer Izturis. As the Padres rebuild, he will suffice for 2016, and perhaps even 2017.
But for the rest of the infield, they have a talented but oft-injured first baseman in Myers, an unproven second baseman in Cory Spangenburg, and an aging shortstop in Alexei Ramirez.
Should Myers miss lots of playing time, new manager Andy Green can rely upon Brett Wallace (.302/.374/.521 with five home runs in 95 at-bats) to fill in. But prior to 2015, Wallace proved problematic at the major league level, which is why the Houston Astros gave up on him.
At second, former first round draft pick Spangenburg gets his opportunity to show that he can play everyday. From June-September, he hit .295 with a .354 OBP as the primary starting second baseman, he hits left-handed, and he has speed. Most scouts project him as a utility player, but in 2016, the 25-year-old gets the chance to show that he can do more. If not, Jose Pirela, formerly of the Yankees, will get a chance to play.
Ramirez figures to be an upgrade over Alexi Amarista at shortstop; the only question is, how much of an upgrade? In 2015, Amarista slashed a horrid .205/.257/.287, while Ramirez slashed .249/.285/.357—and that was after a horrible April-May stretch. Fangraphs ranked him 20th among major league shortstops, and gave him a -0.5 WAR.
Ramirez has lost a step as well, as his DWar was 0.4, which ranked him 14th among starting shortstops.
It’s clear that Ramirez is a stopgap until prospect Guerra, acquired in the Kimbrel trade, is ready by late 2017 at the earliest.
4. Who plays in left and center?
Only Matt Kemp is returning from the 2015 starting outfield, which is generally good (regarding his offense), but also very bad (his defense).
But who will play in left and center?
Myers moves to first base with the departure of Yonder Alonso, though Green has indicated that Myers will make an occasional appearance in left field to give Brett Wallace some playing time. Moving Myers out of center was needed, since he was badly miscast in that role.
In his place, Green figures to use some combination of Melvin Upton, Jr. and Travis Jankowski. Upton was included in the April 2015 trade of Kimbrel from Atlanta, as the Braves could not get rid of his bad contract (5 years, $70 million) fast enough.
But with the Padres, Upton, 31, quietly had a decent year. While he will never be the star he was projected to be while with Tampa, he still hit .259/.327/.429 in 205 at-bats, including five home runs and nine stolen bases. While those aren’t flashy numbers, they beat his .198/.279/.314 that he slashed in two years in Atlanta.
Look for Upton to get at least 250 at-bats—more if he can find some of the old Tampa magic. However, most scouts see him regressing to his Atlanta numbers.
Sharing center field will be Travis Jankowski. He was stellar in AA and AAA last year, batting .335 with a .413 OBP and 32 stolen bases. After getting called up in August, he slashed .211/.245/.344, albeit in limited playing time.
While he bulked up in the off-season, he profiles as a singles hitter who can steal bases. Most scouts see him as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner. But as with Spangenburg, Jankowski will be given an opportunity to prove his critics wrong.
What the Padres are really pining for in center is the quick development of Manuel Margot, the centerpiece of the Kimbrel deal. In 2015, he split time between A and AA. In 64 games at AA, he slashed .271/.326/.419. Look for him to begin 2016 at the Padres’ AA affiliate, and advance to AAA some time in mid-season. A late-season call-up is unlikely, but not out of the question. The more realistic scenario is that he will be ready for full time big league duty in July or August of 2017.
As for left field, Jon Jay figures to be the primary starter. He bats left-handed, and has a career slash of .287/.354/.384 with good on-base skills, but little power or speed. He batted just .210 in an injury-plagued 2015 campaign.
Barring a trade, three others will likely get the chance to prove themselves in left field.
First is Jabari Blash, 26, acquired in the Rule V draft. In 116 games between AA and AAA, Blash slashed .271/.370/.576 with 123 strikeouts and 32 home runs. So he has great power potential.
Fangraphs had this to say about him: “Blash may not be the next Paul Goldschmidt, but that’s not to say he can’t be a productive big leaguer. After all, he’s already proven he’s an excellent minor leaguer; and many of the best minor leaguers also find success at the game’s highest level.”
But at 26, he should have arrived by now. And it is possible that he is a 4-A player, or the next Dave Kingman.
Next is Alex Dickerson, who turns 26 in May. He slashed .307/.374/.503 at AAA with 36 doubles, nine triples, and 14 home runs. The Pacific Coast League, however, is notoriously hitter-friendly, and it’s hard to see how those numbers translate to solid big league production. Even still, Dickerson may be given a chance to see what he can do.
Last and most intriguing is Hunter Renfroe. Now 24, Renfroe spent most of 2015 at AA San Antonio, then got called up to AAA El Paso where he hit six home runs in 90 at-bats. Collectively, he hit 20 home runs in 133 games (511 at-bats), but he also struck out 132 times.
The Padres will probably keep him at AAA until at least August to let him develop.
All of which means that left field, as with center field, are not going to see much run production in 2016. But this is what it means to rebuild: you get worse before you get better.
5. How do you replace Ian Kennedy?
From initial appearances, Ian Kennedy did not have a good 2015, and the Kansas City Royals overpaid for his services this off-season (five years, $70 million).
But a closer look reveals more: a fly-ball pitcher, Kennedy clearly suffered from the Padres porous outfield defense, and so figures to benefit from Kansas City’s air-tight outfield trio. It’s also worth noting that after a slow start, Kennedy posted 2.63 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP from June-August.
And, he rarely gets injured. Such commodities are hard to come by in major league baseball. But while the Royals likely overpaid, and while they will get a high draft pick as compensation, losing Kennedy will hurt the 2016 Padres.
At the top of the rotation, they will have Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner. All of them figure to be anywhere from serviceable to great.
But after those three, what? Unless a trade is made, you can choose between the oft-injured Brandon Morrow, unproven lefty starters Drew Pomeranz and Robbie Erlin, and rookie Colin Rea.
Bottom line: It would be one thing if Green had to choose from among that group to fill just one starting slot. But with Kennedy’s departure, he has to fill two.
6. Who is in the much-weakened bullpen?
For the last decade, one of the Padres strengths has always been a good bullpen. 2015 was no exception, as it was headed by the rock-solid Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit. But when 2015 didn’t pan out, and since those two were among Preller’s best trading chips, both were dealt away for prospects.
So, where does that leave the bullpen in 2016? That was one of the questions Preller needed to answer this offseason. He signed some free agents in Fernando Rodney and Carlos Villanueva, and more recently the left-hander Matt Thornton.
Rodney is a gamble. He turns 39 later this month, and he can either be very good (48 saves, 0.60 ERA, 0.78 WHIP in 2012 with Tampa), but more likely very bad (from 2007-2011, his ERA was always over 4.00, and his WHIP always above 1.30).
Villanueva, 32, figures to be the seventh or eighth inning go-to guy. In 61 innings with St. Louis, he sported a 2.95/1.16/.223 slash.
Also in the mix are Kevin Quackenbush, Jon Edwards, Drew Pomeranz, and Leonel Campos. Look for Quackenbush or Edwards to get shots at closing if Rodney falters.
Since they needed to restructure after the disastrous 2015 season, Preller had to deal Kimbrel and Benoit—unnecessary luxuries for a team on the mend. While he did the right thing by trading them away, that doesn’t mean that the Padres won’t feel their absence.
They certainly will.
Down with football!
That’s true especially if you’re a San Diego fan. Much like Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, the San Diego Chargers “will they or won’t they move to LA” saga of the last year has produced way too much drama for many native San Diegans.
And so, it’s time for baseball, and not a moment too soon.
As I do annually, I am going to unfold my three part preview of the San Diego Padres. Today, I am going to put forward what I see as reasons for optimism. In part two, I will set out the Padres’ potential weaknesses. And in part three, I will lay out my prediction for how they will do in 2016.
Reasons for Optimism
- Lower Expectations
Last year, the Padres were all hype, what with all of the major acquisitions that were made. This undoubtedly put pressure on the team to perform. Many of the players they acquired didn’t really fit into the Padres’ needs.
Like so many other teams that have tried to win overnight through huge makeovers, the 2015 Padres failed. This year, it’s back to basics, and not filling in the holes with square pegs. For instance, A.J. Preller realized that Alexi Amarista wasn’t going to hack it as an everyday shortstop, so he went out and acquired Alexei Ramirez, who has tons of experience there (more on him later).
Having lower expectations will very likely take the pressure off the Padres, and give them time to gel.
2. Four of the Acquired Pieces from the 2014-15 Offseason are back.
Let’s admit it: the 2015 Padres were a flop. No one would suggest otherwise. But what we often forget is that in last offseason’s bonanza, Preller did fetch some pretty good ballplayers who contributed, and stand ready to do so again in 2016.
First is James Shields. Yes, he regressed somewhat last season, giving up 36 home runs, but he also led the team with 216 strikeouts, and had his ninth consecutive season of 200-plus innings. Such consistency is hard to come by, and with an improved defense behind him, look for Shields to bounce back this year.
Second is Matt Kemp. Yes, his outfield defense is one of the best arguments ever for the National League to embrace the designated hitter rule. And yes, he was pretty terrible in the early months of 2015: just one home run in April-May. But for the second year in a row, Kemp went on a tear in the second half with a .868 OPS and 22 home runs from June-September. He also posted 100 RBI for the third time in his carerr.
Third is Derek Norris. A bona fide major league catcher, Norris was healthy, starting a league-high 131 games. He also hit a career high 14 home runs, and his defense noticeably improved. At 27 years of age, Norris is just now entering his prime years, and he only figures to get better.
Fourth is Wil Myers. In April-May, Myers showed what he is capable of by hitting .291 with five home runs. But a recurring wrist injury wrecked havoc on his season, and Myers wound up playing just 60 games. Still just 25, Myers’ mammoth potential remains, and he enters spring training with optimism. If he can stay healthy, Myers will be a major contributor in 2016 and beyond.
3. Shortstop will be in better hands than last year.
Last year, the Padres had the worst offensive and defensive output at shortstop. And, they started the year with Jedd Gyorko at second base, which was a bust (though he improved after coming back from a mid-season demotion).
This offseason, Preller stated that getting a legitimate everyday shortstop was the team’s top on-field priority. And so, he went out and signed Ramirez, an eight-year veteran of the Chicago White Sox who can provide steady defense. While he has a low career on-base percentage of .310 (and just .285 last year), Ramirez has reached double-digits in home runs in six of his eight seasons, and in stolen bases in all but one of those years.
At 34, he has lost a step defensively, but he is nonetheless an upgrade over Amarista.
4. The outfield defense will be much improved.
Of course, it couldn’t get much worse than having Justin Upton-Wil Myers-Matt Kemp from left to right. And, Kemp is still in right field.
But now that Myers has been relegated to first base, center field will likely be manned by some combination of Melvin Upton and Travis Jankowski, both of whom are solid defenders. Left field will probably be manned by Jon Jay (with an occasional appearance by Myers to get Brett Wallace some playing time in the infield). At some point in 2016, Hunter Renfroe, a power hitter who is known to have a strong throwing arm, figures to make his major league debut and spend most of his time in left field.
5. Tyson Ross
It’s hard to believe that Tyson Ross came to the Padres in a trade for Andy Perrino and Andrew Werner—two four-A ball players. Since this deal, he has been a solid mainstay for the Padres, and this year’s opening day starter.
Don’t be fooled by his 10-12 record from last year. The defense did him no favors, and he still needs to get his walks down. But he also had a career-high 212 strikeouts, and he was very solid after a rocky April, sporting a 3.26 ERA and a .237 BAA. He turns 29 in April, and appears poised to take his game to the next level.
It’s no wonder that of all the Padres, Ross has been the most targeted by other team’s general managers. It’s equally no wonder that Preller reportedly demanded the moon in return (i.e., some combination of top prospects and major league-ready talent).
The Padres answered one of the questions about who will man their bullpen this year when they signed left-handed Matt Thornton. Read more about it here.
That is a possibility, reports the Union-Tribune, as the Baltimore Orioles have expressed interest. Even though Cashner had a mediocre season in 2015, he has some things going for him, as reported by Jeff Sanders:
- from 2013-14, he posted a 2.87 ERA with a sparkling 1.13 WHIP;
- he will be a free agent after 2016, so if the Padres trade him, that team can either re-sign him, or gain a first-round draft pick.
For these reasons, the Padres do have a formidable trading chip on their hands.
I believe, though, that it is in general manager A.J. Preller’s best interest to wait; Cashner likely just had a bad year in ’15, and like the rest of the pitching corps, he suffered from an atrocious outfield defense that will be much better this year (read, the Wil Myers in center field experiment is long over).
So assuming that (a) the Padres have another mediocre season, as is very likely, (b) Cashner bounces back to his 2013-14 success, and (c) several teams are looking for pitching help, Preller will then be in the driver’s seat in terms of getting back top talent.
As Kenny Rogers once sang, “You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.” I say, hold Cashner for now as he rebuilds his value.
It’s a rite of the baseball offseason when Major League Baseball releases its list of top 100 prospects.
The 2016 version was released just recently, and three Padres, two of whom were acquired in the offseason Craig Kimbrel to Boston trade, made the list: outfielder Manuel Margot (#45), shortstop Javier Guerra (#58), and outfielder Hunter Renfroe (#92).
See the whole list here.
The scouting report on Margot read in part, “Margot is an all-around talent, possessing a high-end blend of athleticism, physical tools and baseball savvy. His quick bat and outstanding hand-eye coordination help him generate hard contact to all fields from the right side of the plate, and his advanced feel for controlling the strike zone suggests he’ll continue to hit for a high average as he progresses…
“Margot’s plus speed makes him a constant threat on the bases, a notion supported by his 81 steals since the start of 2014. It also enables him to cover a ton of ground in center field, and he shouldn’t have trouble remaining at the position. Margot has shown more polish and advanced quicker than expected, putting him on track to reach San Diego at age 22.”
Margot, 21, will probably begin 2016 at AA San Antonio. If he continues to progress as he has already, he could get promoted to AAA El Paso by midseason. A late season call-up is not out of the question, but far a more likely scenario shows him arriving at the big league level some time in 2017.
The report on Guerra read, “[T]here’s a contingent of scouts who view him as a future Gold Glove-caliber shortstop…Guerra made big strides at the plate in 2015 and especially with his power, finishing seventh in the South Atlantic League with 15 home runs.”
Guerra, 19, had his first full professional season last year, playing A-level baseball in the Red Sox system. He will need at least two more years of seasoning, and he should make his major league debut in 2018.
The report on Renfroe stated, “Renfroe has plus-plus raw power to his pull side, a product of his bat speed and physical strength and an upper-cut swing that’s conducive to clearing fences. He strikes out quite a bit because the approach is aggressive and he has some length to his swing that makes him vulnerable to quality secondary pitches on the outer half as well as advanced sequencing. The contact that Renfroe does make is consistently hard and loud, though, and he’s shown the ability to make adjustments at the plate at each level.
“Defensively, Renfroe’s arm strength is nearly as impressive as his power and makes him a clean fit in right field, where he’s notched 25 assists since the start of the 2014 season.”
Unless he hits five or more home runs in spring training, Renfroe, 24, will probably begin the season at AAA El Paso, with his major league debut coming some time this season.
It is important to remember, though, that prospects are just that: prospects. While these top 100 lists are helpful, they are not necessarily determinative.
Take the top 100 list from 2006, for instance. The number one prospect on that list was Delmon Young. While he is a serviceable hitter with over 100 career home runs, he has never taken his game to the next level, and become the All-Star so many thought that he would become.
Number two on that list was Justin Upton, who played for the Padres only last year, and just signed a huge six-year contract with the Detroit Tigers.
Then again, number four on the 2006 Top 100 was Jeremy Hermida of the (then) Florida Marlins. The scouting report on him said that he had “one of the sweetest swings from the left side I’ve ever seen.” However, Hermida only played in parts of eight seasons (including 2012, his last season, in San Diego), and was done by the age of 28.
Other notables: All-Star Cole Hamels was #68, former Padre Edison Volquez was #56, All-Star Pirate Andrew McCutchen was #50, Ryan Braun of Milwaukee was #49, Jonathan Papelbon was #37, Hanley Ramirez was #30, and All-Star Troy Tulowitski was #25.
Meanwhile, also-rans like Andy LaRoche, Conor Jackson, Andy Marte, and Lastings Milledge all ranked higher than 25.
But most notable on that list, at least from the Padres’ perspective, was #96: Matt Kemp, San Diego’s current right fielder.
That year, the only prospect they had was Cesar Carrillo (#88), and he never made it to the big leagues.
In other words, anything can happen. That the Padres have three young men on the list is hopeful, and having Renfroe at #92 does not mean that he has less of a chance to make an impact than the others.
It will be interesting to revisit the 2016 list ten years down the road.
More: The San Diego Union-Tribune offers further assessment on the Padres’ top prospects. Read about it here.
As determined by Baseball Prospectus, summarized by Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune.
We knew it was coming, but now that Justin Upton has signed a six-year contract with the Detroit Tigers, one of the boldest moves by A.J. Preller last year has proven to be largely a failure.
For one year of Upton, the Padres got 26 home runs, 81 RBI, a .790 OPS, and a nice 4.4 WAR—not bad, considering his batting average, OPS, and RBI were down compared to his regular numbers.
But why do I call it a failure? For two reasons. First, to get him, they traded away top pitching prospect Max Fried, outfield prospect Mallex Smith (who hit .307 with a .376 OBP and 57 stolen bases between AA and AAA last year), infielder Jace Peterson, and minor leaguer Dustin Peterson.
If Fried can overcome his Tommy John Surgery, if Smith continues on his current trajectory, and if Jace Peterson builds on his decent 2015 rookie season, then the Braves will have some very solid building blocks for their current rebuilding project: a potential frontline left-handed starting pitcher, a speedy leadoff center fielder, and a pretty good second baseman—the first two of which are major needs for the Padres.
And the Padres? What do they have to show for it? One year of Justin Upton and a compensatory draft pick this June.
Second, Preller’s clear intent in trading for one year of Upton was to win it all last year. The Padres didn’t even finish at .500, going 74-88.
So the question is, what now? Where do the Padres go from here?
Answer: they rebuild. Prior to Upton’s departure, they had five of the first 100 picks in the June amateur draft. Now, they have six.
Oh yeah, they also need a left fielder; preferably one who hits left-handed, provides some balance to a righty-dominant lineup, and holds down the fort until prospect Hunter Renfroe is ready—likely in the second half of 2016. Since the front office is apparently trying to trade rookie Travis Jankowski and newcomer Jon Jay is being viewed as sharing time in center field with Melvin Upton, Jr., they will need someone else to pencil in at left field.
There are a few in-house options:
- they could bring up Renfroe to start the season. This is a possibility, though highly unlikely unless he wows new manager Andy Green at spring training.
- Rookie Alex Dickerson is another possibility. He bats left-handed, an obvious plus, although it’s hard to see if the Padres view him as an everyday player; he will be 26 in May. But he will probably get a shot. He hit .307/.374/.503 with 36 doubles and 12 home runs at AAA in 2015.
- Rymer Liriano could get a second chance. While he was terrible during his extended 2014 audition, the talent is still there: he slashed .292/.383/.460 with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases at AAA, though he also had 132 strikeouts.
- They could pick a free agent bounce-back candidate like Delmon Young, Matt Joyce, or Dominic Brown.
Which ever route they choose, one thing is certain: left field will not be the same without Justin Upton. He will be missed.